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Don’t count on natural gas to solve US energy problems

OurFiniteWorld.com -- We often hear statements suggesting that by ramping up shale gas production, the US can raise total natural gas production and solve many of its energy problems, including adding quite a number of natural gas vehicles, and replacing a large share of coal fired electricity generation. While there is the possibility that shale gas will allow US natural gas supplies to increase for a few years (or even 10 or 15 years), natural gas is only about one-fourth of US fossil fuel use, so it would be very difficult to ramp it up enough to meet all of these needs.

One issue is whether a rise in shale gas will mostly offset other reductions in natural gas supply. In Annual Energy Outlook 2011, EIA forecasts that shale gas production will increase from 23% of US natural gas production in 2010 to 46% of

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Submitted Mar 18, 2012 By: orphancarguyPE

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albert2008 Champion Author Winnipeg Posts:7,367 Points:1,483,935 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Mar 19, 2012 8:23:41 AM Ignore albert2008 Report Abuse time tells all
Gas_Eyes Champion Author Dallas Posts:2,692 Points:647,785 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Mar 19, 2012 8:21:49 AM Ignore Gas_Eyes Report Abuse This is a cautionary piece of news that although we have plenty of gas now, we must keep working on alternative energy. One day fossil fuels will run out.
mike1881 Champion Author Fayetteville Posts:1,316 Points:568,425 Joined:Feb 2011	Message Posted: Mar 19, 2012 8:10:38 AM Ignore mike1881 Report Abuse Duh.
dsaine Champion Author North Carolina Posts:3,015 Points:635,420 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: Mar 19, 2012 8:05:42 AM Ignore dsaine Report Abuse Why not?
bicycle1966 All-Star Author Akron Posts:605 Points:404,840 Joined:Jul 2011	Message Posted: Mar 19, 2012 6:24:57 AM Ignore bicycle1966 Report Abuse even though he gets slammed by the commenters here -- the fact is, Obama's plan is "all of the above" -- and that makes sense to me.
LetemEatCake Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:5,615 Points:1,207,555 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 8:52:26 PM Ignore LetemEatCake Report Abuse bar1035.... Whatever energy resource this country develops to offset Gasoline usage will bring a profit to any number of different people. To blast Pickens is extremely short-sighted. Had we taken his advice several years ago...Gas prices may have been lower than they are today. The best comment as far as I am concerned is from Schatzila! "Don't count on anything to solve energy problems! Work with everything available."
schatzila Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:4,964 Points:1,019,545 Joined:Jun 2010	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 8:45:01 PM Ignore schatzila Report Abuse Don't count on anything to solve energy problems! Work with everything available.
Tigercat88 Champion Author North Carolina Posts:3,217 Points:620,865 Joined:Jul 2011	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 7:34:03 PM Ignore Tigercat88 Report Abuse Another Expert heard from with a agenda.
alterman156 Champion Author New York Posts:7,505 Points:1,560,675 Joined:Dec 2008	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 6:15:40 PM Ignore alterman156 Report Abuse Natural gas will help, but it isn't a panacea.
Ahking Champion Author Orange County Posts:3,522 Points:606,375 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 5:11:24 PM Ignore Ahking Report Abuse We need a diverse group of energy sources.
listerone Champion Author Boston Posts:3,390 Points:881,465 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 5:00:34 PM Ignore listerone Report Abuse "OurFiniteWorld"...hmmmmm.Would I be way out of line if I assumed that they're a left wing "the world would be a much cleaner place if all humans just killed themselves" kind of organization?
ktbaeohana Champion Author Las Vegas Posts:2,316 Points:423,950 Joined:Mar 2010	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 4:52:06 PM Ignore ktbaeohana Report Abuse We need to do thing here, keep this country running without depend on foreign oil.
PathfinderSC Champion Author South Carolina Posts:9,536 Points:1,834,640 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 4:24:01 PM Ignore PathfinderSC Report Abuse Oil , Natural gas , Coal and others will be needed to keep this Country running. Right now no one fuel can keep this County going. And as new technology is found, More will added to the list.
Paddy60 Veteran Author Alberta Posts:492 Points:463,275 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 2:07:16 PM Ignore Paddy60 Report Abuse Fracing may cost some serious environmental problems. Who wants their water supply filled with crud.
OHMS Champion Author Orange County Posts:13,738 Points:1,695,780 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 1:47:33 PM Ignore OHMS Report Abuse Shale gas is needed to offset declines in conventional production and a drop in Canadian imports, so one cannot assume that an increase in shale gas production corresponds to an increase in the amount of natural gas available for consumption.
MontanaMac Champion Author Washington Posts:1,736 Points:410,050 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 1:29:15 PM Ignore MontanaMac Report Abuse Great info orphancarguyPE
Night Owl Champion Author Toronto Posts:7,570 Points:1,790,500 Joined:Jul 2004	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 1:21:05 PM Ignore Night Owl Report Abuse Both the U.S. and Canada have plentiful reserves of natural gas. Let's use more of it.
bullman68 All-Star Author St. Louis Posts:599 Points:366,285 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 12:54:14 PM Ignore bullman68 Report Abuse Solution, no but it is another viable option.
tnfran Champion Author Arizona Posts:4,398 Points:846,090 Joined:Dec 2010	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 12:29:37 PM Ignore tnfran Report Abuse This is for sure.
Vetteblu Champion Author Denver Posts:2,690 Points:783,745 Joined:Oct 2010	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 12:14:52 PM Ignore Vetteblu Report Abuse Roger that.
humblepie Champion Author Toledo Posts:34,337 Points:2,375,145 Joined:Mar 2006	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 11:15:28 AM Ignore humblepie Report Abuse a new president is an excellant start.
Yooperheart Champion Author Michigan Posts:3,435 Points:529,950 Joined:Feb 2010	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 10:43:28 AM Ignore Yooperheart Report Abuse Well stated Joeski 1 !!
TruthMatters Champion Author New Jersey Posts:2,525 Points:536,460 Joined:Oct 2011	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 10:33:43 AM Ignore TruthMatters Report Abuse Well, that's one pessimistic news that I do not want to hear!
bar1035 Champion Author Charlotte Posts:9,179 Points:1,301,145 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 10:28:38 AM Ignore bar1035 Report Abuse I agree. I've long viewed Pickens as huckster pushing an agenda to boost his NG investment
Joeski1 Champion Author New Jersey Posts:10,017 Points:1,744,760 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 10:28:17 AM Ignore Joeski1 Report Abuse So far I know of 4 unexhaustible energy supplies(none fossil fuels) Geo thermal : the endless constant thermal from the earth Wind: it blows always somwhere Water: hydro, wave , current Solar: the gift from our own star When folks get that all else is a "flash" then we will all move responsibly forward.
orphancarguyPE Champion Author PEI Posts:3,865 Points:737,915 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 10:13:58 AM Ignore orphancarguyPE Report Abuse The devil is in the details, as the saying goes. A lot of people have confounded a short-term excess of natural gas leading to low prices with a very long term plan--in the hundred year of supplies range- of using cheap natural gas to replace gasoline (in vehicles) and coal (in power plants), well, almost if it is a 'forever' rather than a transitional fuel. It seems at first glance an excellent choice for a long term changeover--seemingly super abundant, low priced and falling, domestically produced in the US and Canada, and clean burning. -Canada supplies a chunk to the US, but the outlook for longterm Canadian exports to the US is not so rosy, as more is used in Canada by consumers, and also to run the tar sands extraction (in huge amounts). Tar sands now accounts for 95% of Canada's oil reserves, and its massive, BUT its not gas rich like conventional wells tend to be, and our conventional resources are declining just like the US. -Don't take one mild winter everywhere for granted, and the effects of a continuing slowness in the economy cutting demand, leading to oversupply and falling prices; natural gas might equally be in short supply given one tough winter in some areas. ALSO, a massive increase in natural gas fired air conditioning and utility electrical generation in another extremely hot humid summer could wipe out the excess. We have been lucky in having a mild winter and not being as hot last summer (Texas etc excepted) in terms of CNG/electricity load, but has everyone forgotten the events of 2003 already?? -Before you convert everything to natural gas (like huge fuel guzzling pickups and Suburbans) consider what happens if natural gas spikes due--or if road taxes finally get added to pay for road maintenance, just like on diesel and gasoline. The point being--shouldn't the symptom, using overly large and powerful and wasteful trucks when they are not needed, be corrected first? Using a 14 mpg 4x4 all the time, instead of just when you need it--when you spend $$ to convert, get used to the fact that it will get even fewer MPG (equivalent) than on gasoline or diesel, which is fine as long as the price is low, but even smaller increases with be magnified. -The experience of Texas and the Barnett Shale does point out one drawback to oil and gas production from 'tight' sources compared to conventional wells--the bell curve of production is much steeper up and down--and of shorter duration as well. So, you have to drill more wells, more often. -Fracking seems to be wonderful (and foregoing all the arguments against the modern horizontal version of it versus historical vertical fracking leading to water table pollution yada yada yada) as it gives a quick hit of supply, but the downside it that it is expensive, so at some point it WILL be more expensive to use natural gas, especially as the existing an cheaper conventional gas wells decline and boost the average price, let alone if there is a tightening of supply for any of several reasons. Examine the history of pricing--its not pretty on a consumer level, with huge budget busting swings and peaks, followed by rock bottom prices. -As is pointed out, "unconventional" natural gas production has an energy footprint similar to (dirty as) coal! Not so clean after all. In point of fact, this inconvenient fact is the SAME one that is currently bedeviling the Canadian bitumen/tar sands production--the 'carbon fuel' cost is so very much higher than conventional oil production. Really, its that so much energy is needed to produce oil or gas in 'tight' formations or tar sands that explains the much higher price to produce, as well as the 'dirtiness'.
dgerst Champion Author South Carolina Posts:2,721 Points:558,725 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 10:10:01 AM Ignore dgerst Report Abuse It could potentially help reduce our demand for foreign oil.
Norm10 Champion Author British Columbia Posts:3,342 Points:163,050 Joined:Dec 2010	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 9:58:26 AM Ignore Norm10 Report Abuse It won't solve everything but it sure will help to solve some of our problems.
Gas_Eyes Champion Author Dallas Posts:2,692 Points:647,785 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 9:49:25 AM Ignore Gas_Eyes Report Abuse The long term solution is renewable energy. However it is not ready and too expensive. For the short term, while prices are low, it should help to be the stop gap.
VomVom Champion Author Calgary Posts:3,857 Points:1,627,080 Joined:May 2007	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 9:39:15 AM Ignore VomVom Report Abuse NG may not replace all other fossil fuels, but it will go a long way.
uglytom Champion Author Florida Posts:7,464 Points:1,542,015 Joined:Jul 2007	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 9:34:19 AM Ignore uglytom Report Abuse Apparently US problems unsolvable!
memo81 Champion Author St. Louis Posts:2,363 Points:447,425 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2012 9:33:40 AM Ignore memo81 Report Abuse ok